Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Update EUR/GBP GBP/USD

I had a very large exposure to the GBP. I was short in the GBP vs EUR, USD and JPY.

Pls see my earlier analysis/ trades here:
GBP/USD short opportunity – Head Shoulders Pattern In Daily Chart, 24.09.09
EUR GBP Update, 08.09.09
EUR/GBP establishing an Uptrend, 04.09.09


EUR/GBP
I closed the EUR positions, which were about 50% of my expose. I booked large profits here, because I added to the positions while the GBP was falling. In total I closed 3 positions with profits between 200-400 pips. I expect we have seen a high at 0.9300 and that there will be some retracement. Also I expect the USD to be stronger than the EUR in the short-term. Therefore a GBP/USD short is currently more attractive. If we see a retracement to about 0.9000 I might consider to buy EUR/GBP again (short GBP).


GBP/USD
I am keeping the GBP/USD position open for now. But I locked in profits by setting my Stop-Loss to 1.6000. Medium term I expect further falls to 1.57 and possibly to 1.53. However, a retracement to 1.6100 / 1.6150 is possible after the strong decline.


GBP/JPY
I opened a very small short position this morning at 142.95. The pair moved into profit and I adjusted the Stop-Loss to 142.80. This is a "very attractive pair". The moves a very large and huge profits are possible. However, it is easy to be stopped out as well. Most likely I will concentrate on GBP/USD in the short/ medium term.

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