EUR/USD Short Opportunity

A short opportunity exists in the EUR/USD pair

• The long-term uptrend is showing signs of exhaustion
• The short-term trend in EUR/USD is down
• The price has reached a first resistance level

The EUR/USD has carved out a swing high at 1.4815. The uptrend in the daily chart shows signs of exhaustion. The chart becomes "less steep" (green trendlines in daily chart).

The short-term trend is down (orange channel in the daily and 4hr chart). The short-term downtrend (orange) has reached the lower end of uptrend channel (green). If prices can break this trend barrier, further downward potential is opening up. Current resistances to the downside are at

• 1.4530 former swing lows in the 4hr chart
• 1.4400 former swing highs in the daily chart (blue horizontal line in daily chart)
  

The long-term uptrend is showing signs of exhaustion in the daily chart



The short-term trend in EUR/USD is down (4hr chart)



Trading Strategy
Sell on EUR/USD rallies. I opened a short position at 1.4635 after the NFP release rally on Friday 02.10.09. My initial target is 1.4400. If the short-term trend continues, I might add small short positions. EUR/USD is currently strongly impacted by the markets risk perception. As long as the share market goes down (or stays flat), the EUR/USD will most likely continue to fall due to the "safe haven" character of USD.

My entry was P: 1.4635, SL 1.4775, TP 1.4400